Since 1975 Non-Farm Payrolls Tend to Peak Just Prior To Recession

Posted on February 3, 2012


  1. Prior to the January 1980 – July 1980 recession non-farm payrolls peaked at 90.8 million in January 1980
  2. Prior to the July 1981 – November 1982 recession non-farm payrolls peaked at 91.58 million in July 1981
  3. Prior to the July 1990 – March 1991 recession non-farm payrolls peaked at 109.81 million in June 1990
  4. Prior to the March 2001 – Oct 2001 recession non-farm payrolls peaked at 132.32 million in March 2001
  5. Prior to the December 2007 – June 2009recession non-farm payrolls peaked at 137.85 million in Dec 2007

    Non-Farm Payroll Peaks tend to precede recessions

    Source: The Mays Report

With the new normal in global employment trends I expect this trend to be broken.

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