Winter Wheat Crop Conditions Have Improved This Season, Will Lower Prices Follow?

Posted on November 28, 2011

This weeks crop condition report shows that so far this years winter wheat crop is in better shape than a year ago. 52% of the winter wheat crop is in good or excellent condition. While this remains short of 2009 when 63% of the crop was in good or excellent condition it is an improvement over 2010 when only 47% of the winter wheat crop was in good or excellent shape.

Wheat Crop Condition

Source: The Mays Report

In contrast, only 13 percent of winter wheat is in poor or very poor condition compared to a year ago when 17 percent of the crop was in poor to very poor condition. The percentage of wheat rated in average condition is virtually unchanged from a year ago. It’s hard to tell so early in the growing season how much impact these improved conditions will have. The european debt crises has currencies fluctuating wildly and that is impacting grain prices more than anything.

It’s very early in the growing season, weather is unpredictable and many things can happen. However, if the current trend of improving conditions continues, the increased supply will result in somewhat lower prices.